On Zephyr’s Adjusted for Risk Podcast, market strategist Ryan Nauman interviews Thomas Martin, board member, partner, and senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, about the current market environment and portfolio positioning. Martin highlights the war involving Iran and potential disruption at the Strait of Hormuz as the key macro risk, primarily through its impact on oil prices and inflation, with possible recession implications if elevated prices persist. He explains Globalt’s approach as balanced and benchmark-aware, currently modestly overweight the U.S., underweight international equities, and holding Treasuries over credit due to insufficient compensation for credit risk, while managing duration near the market. He discusses using gold and silver as uncertainty hedges, trimming after spikes, the challenges of high index concentration, the sustainability of tech-led leadership, valuation pressures from AI disruption risk, and why P/E ratios remain a useful shorthand despite limitations.
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Learn more about Globalt Investments here.
00:00 Welcome to the Podcast
01:03 Meet Thomas Martin
03:02 Biggest Macro Risk Oil
07:49 Portfolio Positioning Today
11:26 Why Underweight International
14:12 Balancing Risk and Upside
17:10 Market Broadening Beyond Tech
20:16 Valuations and PE Debate
24:54 Beating a Concentrated Index
28:50 AI Hype vs Real Winners
31:07 Wrap Up and Where to Learn More
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